A new study suggests that the COVID-19 vaccine would need to majorly successful for us to return to normal.

What’s happening:

A new study from American Journal of Preventive Medicine, published by Elsevier, used a computational model to find that a COVID-19 vaccine with at least 80% effectiveness would lead to a “return to normal.”

  • The study said if 75% of people get the vaccine, it has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic.
  • If it reaches 80%, then the current pandemic would be eliminated completely.

However ..

The study said the thresholds climb with less people who get vaccinated.

If 60% get the vaccine, then we would need an 80% effective rate to stop an epidemic and a 100% success rate to end the pandemic.

“Some are pushing for a vaccine to come out as quickly as possible so that life can ‘return to normal.’ However, we have to set appropriate expectations. Just because a vaccine comes out doesn’t mean you can go back to life as it was before the pandemic. It is important to remember that a vaccine is like many other products — what matters is not just that a product is available, but also how effective it is.” — lead investigator Bruce Y. Lee said in a statement.

How many Americans will get the COVID-19 vaccine?

Earlier this month, the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll found that the majority of American respondents felt unsure about getting a COVID-19 vaccine. Some said they ruled out the vaccine completely.

  • 44% of Americans said they’d get the vaccine
  • 22% said they wouldn’t.
  • 32% said they’re unsure
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